NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ba1fcd5e9a4bf7eab2ec38f0a901a8f0ef667f0f2194eea88dd2162d3e825e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9315…a744backed Under | 53c | 17,000$9,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,990 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Over | 47c | 17,000$7,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,990 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,402$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…098ebacked Under | 51c | 1,220$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 232$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 53c | 232$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Under | 54c | 191.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 46c | 104.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 99.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236d…5e45backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Under | 52c | 78.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 51c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…ec26backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…6e0dbacked Over | 48c | 32.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 47c | 31.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…851fbacked Over | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 24.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Under | 54c | 19.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Hornets won
- Raptors vs. HornetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.