NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09cbeb5ffd9add93aa5732b85f250c0f06e892793089c7f34d6a90633bea1684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 53c | 25,000$13,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,249.99 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…7a4ebacked Under | 47c | 10,027$4,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,314.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c2…5260backed Under | 47c | 8,369$3,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,435.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Under | 47c | 8,000$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,240 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Under | 50c | 3,299$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.5 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 3,272$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…aafabacked Under | 50c | 2,204$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…098ebacked Under | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.13 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc95…c60fbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 593.03$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.45 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 588$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 438.15$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.38 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 52c | 221$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 201$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Over | 51c | 191.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 191.43$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 50c | 166$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 51c | 159$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 50c | 114$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Over | 53c | 101$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…ff92backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 69.6%64 W · 28 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 49c | 72.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 50c | 59.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Under | 49c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…1ae2backed Over | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…617fbacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…205bbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…7347backed Over | 51c | 28.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…a2aabacked Over | 51c | 28.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Over | 51c | 28.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Over | 51c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Over | 51c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…627bbacked Over | 51c | 26.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Over | 51c | 26.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Over | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…38febacked Over | 51c | 24.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…835bbacked Over | 51c | 24.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9229…830bbacked Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Over | 46c | 23.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Under | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ff…14eebacked Over | 51c | 22.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…a4a4backed Over | 51c | 22.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…ac80backed Over | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…1baebacked Under | 50c | 20.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde13…76f4backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Hornets won
- Raptors vs. HornetsRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.