Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1af7e76b5f612b2db6a6c97135610748bed156e0d53657b80b9606fff20d3eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Qingdao Xihaian FCof Beijing Guoan FC, Qingdao Xihaian FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Beijing Guoan FC | 31c | 1,189$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 71c | 740.32$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.59 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Beijing Guoan FC | 26c | 663.52$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.14 | 1,662 | 36.2%602 W · 1,060 L | -34.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 72c | 591.98$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.76 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Beijing Guoan FC | 30c | 554.04$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…6c59backed Beijing Guoan FC | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 72c | 459.92$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 74c | 376.54$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Beijing Guoan FC | 25c | 294.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Qingdao Xihaian FC | 70c | 293.48$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 78c | 223.78$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 69c | 140.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 74c | 131.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Qingdao Xihaian FC | 71c | 112.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Beijing Guoan FC | 29c | 94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Beijing Guoan FC | 26c | 92.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Beijing Guoan FC | 27c | 89.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Qingdao Xihaian FC | 73c | 69.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 69c | 68.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Qingdao Xihaian FC | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Beijing Guoan FC | 28c | 61.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Qingdao Xihaian FC | 70c | 49.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 76c | 40.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Qingdao Xihaian FC | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 78c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 334 | 54.8%183 W · 151 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 70c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Qingdao Xihaian FC | 79c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked Qingdao Xihaian FC | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)this page
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.