Asian League · resolved market

Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b75acc6b3fce5ad8c55ed29f4bc6174eadf5b8983d3d481db7e3b7ca459c77b

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $46,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Asian League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb184…b6c6backed Over	49c	5,145$2,545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,544.83	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-4.2wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	4,991$2,817 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,174.21	5,946	46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L	+50.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over	51c	4,045$2,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,062.7	102	35.3%36 W · 66 L	-9.1wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	49c	3,529$1,741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,787.3	1,725	50.6%873 W · 852 L	+28.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under	51c	2,217$1,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,083.69	95	26.3%25 W · 70 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	43c	1,884$810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,074.07	196	33.2%65 W · 131 L	-11.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	77c	1,649$1,270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.22	1,309	56.8%743 W · 566 L	+66.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	76c	1,507$1,144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$363.21	693	52.2%362 W · 331 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	50c	1,247$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.94	2,424	38%920 W · 1,504 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	50c	1,214$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.95	1,443	35.3%509 W · 934 L	-36.4wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Under	50c	755.07$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.74	158	26.6%42 W · 116 L	-13.5wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ca7…94ccbacked Over	15c	717.75$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc29…383bbacked Under	52c	640.68$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.53	94	41.5%39 W · 55 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Under	64c	623.5$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.5	246	54.1%133 W · 113 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under	43c	591.95$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.41	168	56%94 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Over	26c	573.26$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.5	207	69.6%144 W · 63 L	+31.9wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	36c	558.45$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.55	2,491	40%997 W · 1,494 L	-18.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Under	52c	499.99$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-3.8wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under	43c	459.96$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.18	177	57.6%102 W · 75 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	50c	446.27$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.36	1,221	50.2%613 W · 608 L	+12.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over	24c	414.42$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.36	98	24.5%24 W · 74 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Under	54c	375.93$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.93	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	52c	341.5$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.81	1,356	45.5%617 W · 739 L	+15.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	50c	276$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.95	1,647	36.2%596 W · 1,051 L	-34.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	23c	248.43$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.28	2,522	42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L	+54.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0c…5292backed Under	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Over	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	226	42.5%96 W · 130 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Over	50c	211.71$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.82	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4d…5413backed Over	58c	200$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f2…1761backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	99	50.5%50 W · 49 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Under	52c	192.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.25	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	56c	186.21$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.28	1,764	50.2%886 W · 878 L	+31.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under	52c	185.64$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.05	127	41.7%53 W · 74 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6882…6f08backed Over	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	92	69.6%64 W · 28 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Over	52c	173.31$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.12	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Over	57c	156$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.92	182	56%102 W · 80 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	64c	138.96$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.21	1,522	54.9%835 W · 687 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e35…3655backed Over	43c	136.4$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.65	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x156e…cf6fbacked Over	29c	132.62$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over	53c	125.83$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.81	478	60.3%288 W · 190 L	+15.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Over	53c	121.91$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.61	282	53.5%151 W · 131 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x153a…212dbacked Over	57c	121.87$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	51c	114$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	300	49.7%149 W · 151 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Under	51c	111.4$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.32	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-4.6wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	33c	102.5$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.32	324	57.1%185 W · 139 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	150	35.3%53 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	276	39.5%109 W · 167 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Over	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	179	53.6%96 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	49c	89$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.37	1,651	50.9%840 W · 811 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b24…4247backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Under	52c	83.59$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.09	154	55.8%86 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Under	52c	78.32$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.63	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	-8.3wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-25%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Over	50c	73.67$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.49	45	71.1%32 W · 13 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	63cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over	56c	72.92$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.84	405	50.6%205 W · 200 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	69c	67.5$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.05	892	45%401 W · 491 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under	50c	66.58$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.29	93	29%27 W · 66 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x160c…185cbacked Under	45c	64.19$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.15	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.38per pick	42cpaid	+88.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Over	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	127	42.5%54 W · 73 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	50c	58.29$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.14	1,970	54.4%1,071 W · 899 L	+32.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Over	32c	53.21$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	88	6.8%6 W · 82 L	-22.0wins	-0.25per pick	32cpaid	-78%equal weight	28-0.19 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Over	50c	50.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.82	52	59.6%31 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c83…8380backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb435…b97cbacked Over	46c	49.82$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.86	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under	56c	44.91$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.58	159	71.1%113 W · 46 L	+15.5wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5fc…faedbacked Over	57c	38.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e0b…f166backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	34.1%30 W · 58 L	-8.2wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a29…16c5backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	112	43.8%49 W · 63 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae4…e4a2backed Over	50c	34.06$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under	47c	33.79$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.86	225	44%99 W · 126 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…e00fbacked Over	57c	33.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bba…c7d3backed Under	46c	31.43$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.97	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over	57c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	143	49.7%71 W · 72 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0156…2ddcbacked Over	42c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5b…acdcbacked Under	51c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.21	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+72.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over	65c	27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.47	199	65.3%130 W · 69 L	+27.3wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+39.5%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	57c	23.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	158	50%79 W · 79 L	-14.3wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under	55c	22.94$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.29	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over	52c	22.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	72	63.9%46 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Under	47c	21.28$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.28	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3537…3419backed Under	78c	16.28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.58	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5this page
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event