Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f176a33bb0a4491379ec260d5756d638a8b9148e415ac1b1377c9c9de85df8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 1,593$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.07 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 68c | 1,000$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 45c | 960.94$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 820.94$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.39 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 67c | 779.85$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.65 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 59c | 508.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 287 | 32.8%94 W · 193 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 46c | 345.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.15 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 35c | 289.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.15 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 62c | 269.74$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.77 | 905 | 44.9%406 W · 499 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f6…b0f2backed Over | 59c | 257.63$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4d…5413backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…3d1abacked Over | 55c | 181.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 58c | 166.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 163.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 60c | 151.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 69c | 144.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 129.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Over | 30c | 100.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 150 | 35.3%53 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 280 | 40.4%113 W · 167 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 49c | 78.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 68c | 73.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,662 | 36.2%602 W · 1,060 L | -34.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.4wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Over | 57c | 67.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 30c | 64.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 376 | 62.5%235 W · 141 L | +61.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 33c | 56.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 398 | 61.8%246 W · 152 L | +56.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 30c | 47.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 346 | 59.8%207 W · 139 L | +49.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…a3eebacked Over | 53c | 47.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Over | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 45c | 42.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…b981backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Over | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…1c42backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 77c | 27.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…c143backed Over | 73c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…1cc6backed Under | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.