Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98d154f4c4bb7c2b66182dc2f3d72bc7c8379303b0f982d9eaf8c58fcac6b08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 5c | 1,887$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 977$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.76 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 70c | 810.9$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.77 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 66c | 591.97$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.27 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 3c | 550.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 32c | 499.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 66c | 460$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.4 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 25c | 300$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 17c | 238$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.38 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 218.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…875ebacked Over | 33c | 167.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 69c | 124.59$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 31c | 110.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 67c | 95.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Over | 29c | 95.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…fd08backed Under | 68c | 90.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776c…5c84backed Under | 68c | 78.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 76.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 75.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…e00fbacked Over | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 69c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 68c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 69c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 68c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.