Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1d135741a6370e661b7d041a34e7ec86c8e5bd521f50452d166aac91a59bad2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 1,144$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.2 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 728.09$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 56c | 531.12$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.99 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 44c | 464.77$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.52 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 54c | 449.7$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.14 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 350.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 18c | 345.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 316.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 274.25$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.13 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 40c | 271$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.84 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 228$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 25c | 227.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 227.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 20c | 225.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 24c | 224.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 224.73$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 62c | 219.96$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.37 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2979…d76fbacked Yes | 37c | 218.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 215.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 37c | 203$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 202.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.38 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 195.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 189.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 182.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 162.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 7c | 160.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 61c | 160.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 36c | 159.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 11c | 153.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 10c | 143.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 63c | 143$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 138.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 137.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 136.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 12c | 136.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 133.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 39c | 125.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 16c | 123.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 122.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 117.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcc…5f1bbacked Yes | 43c | 117.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 46c | 107.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 106$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 104.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 103$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 97.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 92.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…8d1cbacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 47c | 85.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 84.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 24c | 82.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 43c | 82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 45c | 79.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 78.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 70c | 78.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 49c | 78.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…9ef3backed Yes | 42c | 67.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 67.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…9caebacked Yes | 50c | 67.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 23c | 66.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 61c | 66.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 66.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 27c | 65.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 65.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 41c | 61.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 67c | 60.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 49c | 58.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked Yes | 49c | 57.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 59c | 55.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 55.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 55.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked No | 52c | 54.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 53.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 52.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 40c | 48.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 67c | 47.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 44.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 43.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 42.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.