Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f0d6484db3359132c923d094021f76f38a707330c054635fe10cd311d546955
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 591.34$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 16c | 467.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 459.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 25c | 361.13$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 300.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 280.27$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 272.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 22c | 271$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 13c | 267.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 16c | 256.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…2710backed Yes | 5c | 234.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 220$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 79c | 212.25$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 74c | 202.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 171.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 29c | 171.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 170.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 36c | 166.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 163.16$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 150.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 145.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 128.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 126$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 15c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 119$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 115.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 112.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 18c | 111.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 106$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 104.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 79c | 100.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 85.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 81.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 77.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 77.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 24c | 69.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 71c | 67.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 64.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 32c | 62.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 62.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 60.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 58.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 73c | 58.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 19c | 58.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 52.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 41.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 40.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 75c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 36c | 37.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 34.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…6bb9backed No | 74c | 32.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked No | 75c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 74c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.