Asian League · resolved market
Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2b59960d3a6c75af2aa797419feea6da3f041e231cec2fbbda9ddec9190bfba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa24e…1be8backed No | 49c | 2,695$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 25c | 2,216$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.38 | 1,804 | 36.6%660 W · 1,144 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 71c | 1,427$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.36 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed No | 29c | 1,336$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.11 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…021ebacked Yes | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 25c | 1,137$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.75 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 31c | 1,069$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.19 | 798 | 42.4%338 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 981.94$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.37 | 986 | 35.1%346 W · 640 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 65c | 799.89$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.64 | 2,650 | 40.2%1,065 W · 1,585 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b00…8cf8backed Yes | 28c | 707.11$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +170.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 7c | 659.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 337 | 49.6%167 W · 170 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 21c | 649.06$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 69c | 568.37$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.92 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 540.45$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.86 | 2,620 | 42%1,101 W · 1,519 L | +51.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…857abacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed No | 72c | 495$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.77 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…8abcbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked No | 18c | 415.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 37c | 386.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.71 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…44b2backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 24c | 351.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.51 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 30c | 302.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 75c | 271.87$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.83 | 1,196 | 46.2%553 W · 643 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed No | 76c | 261.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 16c | 240.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 76c | 222.74$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 2,612 | 37.8%988 W · 1,624 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 641 | 42.7%274 W · 367 L | -31.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes | 48c | 192$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…f8c5backed Yes | 26c | 180$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 28c | 164.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 24c | 156$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 13c | 152.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 146 | 51.4%75 W · 71 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 56c | 148.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 154 | 57.8%89 W · 65 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 33c | 148.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 311 | 24.8%77 W · 234 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…fe71backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 21c | 130.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed No | 65c | 129.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 25c | 128.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 890 | 38.1%339 W · 551 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Yes | 32c | 112.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 77c | 111.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 392 | 47.7%187 W · 205 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 110.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 1,882 | 50%941 W · 941 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed No | 15c | 105.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…d5e9backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed No | 79c | 101.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 53c | 100.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…46f8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 93.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 2,076 | 54.2%1,126 W · 950 L | +34.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 33c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 757 | 43.7%331 W · 426 L | -35.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 65c | 90.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 138 | 66.7%92 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 54c | 83.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 24c | 70.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,084 | 41.5%450 W · 634 L | -39.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 52c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 793 | 55.4%439 W · 354 L | +36.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 30c | 59.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Yes | 70c | 50.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 73c | 50.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 590 | 46.6%275 W · 315 L | -20.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 238 | 55%131 W · 107 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 41c | 46.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 64c | 46.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8384…3953backed Yes | 62c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…ed5fbacked Yes | 67c | 43.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 39c | 39.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…b156backed No | 55c | 39.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Yes | 63c | 37.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…0b11backed No | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…848dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…5e47backed No | 62c | 19.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…c64abacked Yes | 67c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 62c | 17.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 61c | 17.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…896ebacked Yes | 80c | 13.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-08-28?No won
- Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-08-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.