Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf39b9644fddd9fed4c7c70034ce735036abe80445482925640324887db0aa4ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 1,207$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 35c | 448.23$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.72 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 62c | 271.08$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 249.35$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 203.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 200.49$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 185.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 173.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 160.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 156.02$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 148.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 115.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 40c | 103.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 93.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 57c | 92.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 89.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 81.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 77.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 70.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 30c | 67.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 51c | 57.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 45c | 51.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 47c | 46.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 45.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 34c | 43.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…c918backed Yes | 47c | 41.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 78c | 38.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 36.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 36.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 53c | 33.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 39c | 32.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 30.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 61c | 27.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 50c | 22.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 20.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 19.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 17.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 17.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 16.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…c64fbacked Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.