Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ed887a3dd7c642305ff9cb8fa033599ea34bee5c5cb7a4e1527e9fd7a63045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 16c | 315.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 206.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 162.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 159.68$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 80c | 155.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 142.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 15c | 132.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 22c | 129.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 104.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 21c | 102.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 102.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 100.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 99.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 92.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 89.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 25c | 82.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 78c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 68c | 68.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 78c | 65.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 61.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 52.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…fdc7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…5b51backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 46.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 42.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 28.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…e96abacked No | 78c | 23.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 76c | 20.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 74c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.