TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,929

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c7b…bd59backed No2c1,297$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.565060%30 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No28c469.02$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8459121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No14c337.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.781,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No12c337.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.852,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed No50c260.59$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.839625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes52c258.84$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.222746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes80c251.88$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.858245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked No16c232.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.49819.4%19 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No34c222.66$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5265353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No14c212.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.56,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No21c211.05$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No42c204.15$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.443,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No10c178.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No14c168$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.295,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeadb…898ebacked Yes45c164.02$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.212133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No38c153.67$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.391,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Yes46c147.83$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.835151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No10c147.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.281,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed No51c142$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No71c140.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c135.9$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.939,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No46c128.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No55c127.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.922,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c120.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.699,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes78c118.69$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.682369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed Yes64c109.68$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.978361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1037942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9898…0a7dbacked No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No14c92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6128456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2401…0753backed No56c91.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.114854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes71c91.72$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7224466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No12c86.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes71c85.01$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.932,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes70c84.29$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.875,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes45c81.37$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0222932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No15c79.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes52c76.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.271,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No48c75.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7782…f35fbacked No48c75.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.454746.8%22 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes47c70.12$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No21c68.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c66.09$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c63.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.541,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No47c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.94647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c53.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6380050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked No56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014725.2%37 W · 110 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes75c53.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.334254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes78c51.81$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.242,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes49c51.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.522,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No54c51.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5614043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1923…ef8ebacked Yes67c50.66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.52147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdffa…e54cbacked No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8442…3eddbacked No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273426.5%9 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes53c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24ac…c567backed Yes44c48.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.084231%13 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes52c44.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.641,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafae…ca54backed No47c43.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No53c40.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4225258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6752828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8921339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes33c39.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafb8…7451backed Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.469335.5%33 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7082…3a10backed Yes31c38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.223528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No47c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0419848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0482268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked Yes54c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0216263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No70c36.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.672,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb06…239ebacked Yes55c36.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.41666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+46.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…51cdbacked Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ca…3d37backed No48c32.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed No48c32.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6111249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes37c31.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8945236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.834,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No48c30.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6213…7e3ebacked Yes66c30.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed Yes52c28.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8634151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10f4…c2eabacked No57c28.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.995149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb51…329bbacked No56c27.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.676426.6%17 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7876936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes76c26.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3913588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x607c…aadbbacked Yes77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.972369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes76c25.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1779255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No49c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.255337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bb5…5969backed Yes72c20.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.729162.6%57 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa9…a323backed No70c15.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.877755.8%43 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-12.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.