MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44238efcb9ae37fc23f6e2dbdd80a2ada19f00788092923980ea33086e24724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 63c | 3,188$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.69 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 2,812$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 57c | 1,869$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.44 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 1,624$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 31c | 1,015$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.97 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 689.39$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.86 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 62c | 353.88$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.05 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 57c | 344.81$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.54 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 41c | 302$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 43c | 233.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 213$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 188.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 42c | 147.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 42c | 147.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 56c | 118.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 43c | 116.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 58c | 103.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 91.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 50c | 77.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 39c | 53.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 66c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 41c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Under | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.