MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ca3b377fe9029a7ae2d2b1c7c613f749621bfc4d8326ae2c8a4bd6d6c01690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 11,124$7,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,347.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 9,999$3,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,408.61 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 4,926$3,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 4,434$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,926.44 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 3,795$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.03 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 3,623$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 2,049$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.12 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 1,337$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.29 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 1,000$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 778$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.7 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 743$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.95 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 548.5$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.63 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 507.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.54 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 507.81$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.54 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 489$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 441.17$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 415.93$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 285.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 210$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 189.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 130.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 117.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 114.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 113.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 21c | 93.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 83.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 76.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 65.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 61.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 59.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 49.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 48.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 45.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 39.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 30.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.