TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$306,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$306,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over54c216,504$116,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,983.8646949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under46c111,250$51,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,175.0128350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under46c28,590$13,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,151.471650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under47c23,292$10,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,874.111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under46c11,521$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,299.6692054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Over54c10,081$5,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,637.1650153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over54c9,686$5,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,455.7110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under46c8,049$3,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,702.698,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under47c6,300$2,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,961.0277647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Under46c6,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76012939.5%51 W · 78 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Over52c5,647$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,717.2526054.2%141 W · 119 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under44c5,582$2,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.228,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under46c3,200$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47264452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c3,083$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under46c3,044$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.891,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under47c2,690$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.564,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1751,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under24c2,389$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.072,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under47c2,304$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.741,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Under46c2,176$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.9610748.6%52 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf4…2680backed Under46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefcd…2626backed Under46c2,129$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under46c1,911$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.0856253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over53c1,698$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7906,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under46c1,333$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.3387750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Under46c1,304$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60039953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Under46c1,304$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60038551.4%198 W · 187 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under45c1,209$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.298,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under46c1,111$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.061,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.516753.9%90 W · 77 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under48c780$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.51,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b5…2ff8backed Under46c700$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3224833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.7wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Under46c642.55$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5729147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Under46c615.15$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.979956.6%56 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Under46c543.5$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0148851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under48c500$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.55,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under46c456$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.761,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Under45c454$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.345445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under46c453$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.871,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Under46c451.26$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8165549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Over55c435.71$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0737052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed Under46c418.59$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.5512752.8%67 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under51c349.99$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17944245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under48c327$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.961,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Under46c326.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0146152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under46c317.82$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.22,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda75…e183backed Under46c304.35$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over62c294.45$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.891,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf58d…1fadbacked Over54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.781861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Under46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11551849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under10c248$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9270737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Under46c217.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10053655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Under46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019555.9%109 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Over55c214.8$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2720945%94 W · 115 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Under47c212.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011041.8%46 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cfa…950bbacked Under52c208.96$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11067453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Over52c192$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.169650%48 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1938252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8237256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under45c174.41$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0748751.5%251 W · 236 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Under46c163.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7546255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f45…e6a7backed Under46c163.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756454.7%35 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed Under46c160.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0540753.3%217 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under45c149.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4999447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0c…4d9cbacked Under46c142.85$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under48c141$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.682,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under46c140$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.477050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Over76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5818272%131 W · 51 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Under46c130.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6016355.8%91 W · 72 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ec…f645backed Under47c128$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.161717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.27per pick45cpaid-62.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2f5f…f7aebacked Under47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under46c127.33$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.152750.1%264 W · 263 L+19.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under47c124.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.361,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under45c121.43$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0342451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b4…1306backed Under46c115.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Under46c115.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.959248.9%45 W · 47 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x841f…ad4bbacked Under46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf5…d9f2backed Under46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under47c106.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Under46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4634639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Under45c97.24$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7620845.2%94 W · 114 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…baf3backed Under46c79.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.691526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-52.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under38c75.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8755645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under19c75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Under46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023357.5%134 W · 99 L+22.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x193b…f6ecbacked Under46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305052%26 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under46c60.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7840341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Under46c56.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9129255.8%163 W · 129 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under46c55.47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.572,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Under46c54.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9914544.8%65 W · 80 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed Under46c53.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4734139.9%136 W · 205 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Under45c53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0627252.9%144 W · 128 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over53c52.77$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under46c51.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.711,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28dd…f376backed Under47c51.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over55c48.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1156435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca6…9da8backed Under46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.