MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ef75a5b12eee0d51a3affc92392ccea2c65b520c2783abb2d0c72af49a93ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 5,119$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.41 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 1,527$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 1,319$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.22 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 996.36$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 33c | 711.49$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.79 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…d2f0backed Under | 73c | 687.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.67 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 39c | 544.17$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.96 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 72c | 447.73$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 35c | 436.25$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 400.36$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…68f7backed Under | 68c | 316.85$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 67c | 263.5$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 34c | 149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 35c | 117.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Over | 18c | 88.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Over | 18c | 81.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Under | 73c | 80.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 71c | 80.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Over | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 76c | 38.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 46c | 35.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 54c | 34.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 74c | 31.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 67c | 29.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 25.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 80c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.