Movies · resolved market
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf484a26323a25f1aa256c96d31ee434bf841184e9c2d175f215fc9368207ff6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 80c | 1,542$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.92 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 20c | 1,030$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.56 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed Yes | 24c | 575$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 2c | 550$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Yes | 20c | 529.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 77c | 477.52$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 10c | 461.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 76c | 417$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed Yes | 11c | 396.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 20c | 390.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 26c | 360.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 80c | 307.82$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 287.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 8c | 220$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 35c | 215.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 172.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 28c | 172$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 78c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 75c | 108$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 20c | 100.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…f799backed Yes | 21c | 96.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 90.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 87.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 70.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 67.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 56c | 28.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?this page
- Will "Michael" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.