NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4abed0a54ca2e0ba31a19af12db91ab44f09facfe074f5a7d96b67de80dcd0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,218$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 23c | 1,019$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 850$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.5 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 722$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.56 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 29c | 354.72$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 349.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.91 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 202.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 198.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 52c | 115.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 110.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 49c | 82.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…e6e5backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Under | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 55.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 47.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…068ebacked Under | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…3a66backed Over | 52c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 52c | 28.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 51c | 27.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…e14ebacked Under | 51c | 24.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 47c | 21.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5this page
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Pacers vs. WizardsWizards won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)Wizards won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 6.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.