NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14f8874b83406504ecb3ac1f209687ac1b5f47ec324c25be5909b8d33f62c560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Pacers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers | 39c | 3,897$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.27 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Wizards | 52c | 3,091$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.53 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Pacers | 41c | 2,955$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.72 | 140 | 61.4%86 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Wizards | 52c | 1,754$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.72 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers | 32c | 1,573$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.13 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Wizards | 50c | 1,227$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.35 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Wizards | 51c | 1,008$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.42 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Wizards | 78c | 700$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.11 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers | 46c | 670.67$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.97 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Pacers | 48c | 652.53$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.38 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Pacers | 41c | 650.56$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.73 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 52c | 527.05$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 59c | 399.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Wizards | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Wizards | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Pacers | 41c | 291.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Pacers | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 44c | 267.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 44c | 263.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 49c | 195.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards | 64c | 194.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Pacers | 27c | 193.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Wizards | 60c | 187.32$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.32 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Pacers | 30c | 184.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Wizards | 55c | 149.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Pacers | 41c | 147$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Wizards | 67c | 146.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Pacers | 31c | 117.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Wizards | 76c | 113$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Wizards | 54c | 100.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Pacers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Pacers | 24c | 92.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pacers | 41c | 91.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Pacers | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Wizards | 51c | 83.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pacers | 48c | 75.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Wizards | 60c | 75.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Wizards | 68c | 73.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Wizards | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Pacers | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Pacers | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Wizards | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 619 | 39.6%245 W · 374 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Wizards | 50c | 51.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Wizards | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Pacers | 48c | 48.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Wizards | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Wizards | 51c | 41.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Wizards | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pacers | 43c | 37.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wizards | 72c | 33.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e29…31c9backed Wizards | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Wizards | 57c | 29.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Pacers | 50c | 26.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Wizards | 51c | 21.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…0b0bbacked Wizards | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Wizards | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)this page
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Pacers vs. WizardsWizards won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Wizards won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 6.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.