NBA · resolved market
T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5463f33a78d8d988ba626bb459f925f52e1fedc0df88bf07859c2f790bb599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 59c | 1,200$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed No | 58c | 742.69$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.39 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 39c | 651$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.68 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 49c | 408.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…49d6backed Yes | 41c | 339.49$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…ad70backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 48cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…d04abacked Yes | 42c | 264.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 43c | 256.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 44c | 165.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -14.1wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Yes | 45c | 54.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Yes | 56c | 44.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 3.5this page
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Pacers vs. WizardsWizards won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)Wizards won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 6.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.