NBA · resolved market
T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc53815b55fa624eaec26dfcbdbdedb5e2911f597a2fcdb3b5b64deee8ab4bdbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,632$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 60c | 1,224$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.9 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 56c | 845.57$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.57 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed No | 59c | 835.09$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cc…5a59backed Yes | 44c | 606$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce1…15dfbacked Yes | 42c | 604.25$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…ad70backed Yes | 43c | 501.28$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 48cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 53c | 478.93$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.55 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Yes | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -14.1wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 57c | 186.05$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…d04abacked Yes | 44c | 150.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 49c | 122.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…223ebacked Yes | 36c | 104.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…022dbacked Yes | 42c | 100.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55a…48f3backed Yes | 49c | 81.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…ccefbacked Yes | 49c | 69.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 38c | 40.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 55c | 37.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed No | 77c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 6.5this page
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Pacers vs. WizardsWizards won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)Wizards won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.