NBA · resolved market
Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d6138f8fbea9a4c3fde016d1afb2122003ac6c516ff4f9bcd1f86030338e013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 38c | 2,110$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.8 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…49d6backed Yes | 46c | 1,668$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…6ffabacked No | 62c | 1,610$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.8 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 63c | 1,174$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.34 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…fab1backed Yes | 38c | 1,058$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 61c | 799.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…ef0bbacked Yes | 38c | 648$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 62c | 602.9$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.31 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bc94backed No | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 36c | 435.11$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.47 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 61c | 409$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 63c | 340$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 36c | 186.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…1932backed Yes | 37c | 123.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…9848backed Yes | 39c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 62c | 49.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…d536backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…71a1backed Yes | 38c | 42.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 62c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 14.5this page
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Pacers vs. WizardsWizards won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-1.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)Wizards won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 6.5No won
- T.J. McConnell: Points O/U 7.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.