Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Andrey Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b20840149ee7aa327850805a13f746daa973be33ca04614ebcfb2aa7b317ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Norrie, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Norrie | 65c | 4,672$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Rublev | 36c | 4,142$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.88 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…a42cbacked Rublev | 66c | 3,926$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Norrie | 37c | 3,543$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.4 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…b670backed Rublev | 36c | 2,777$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Norrie | 65c | 2,664$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.96 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Rublev | 33c | 2,485$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.57 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Rublev | 48c | 1,472$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.55 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Rublev | 32c | 1,383$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Norrie | 35c | 1,290$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.65 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Rublev | 19c | 1,050$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rublev | 57c | 971.82$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.98 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Norrie | 34c | 843.96$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.49 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Norrie | 45c | 841.3$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.24 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Rublev | 35c | 798.44$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Norrie | 51c | 743.01$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.82 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Norrie | 52c | 696.42$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.44 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Rublev | 65c | 665.69$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.7 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Rublev | 66c | 625$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Rublev | 51c | 590.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rublev | 64c | 583.52$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.84 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Rublev | 63c | 493.84$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.12 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Rublev | 52c | 411.57$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Norrie | 60c | 355.72$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Rublev | 51c | 297$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Rublev | 32c | 285.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rublev | 60c | 266$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rublev | 62c | 264$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rublev | 63c | 232.03$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Norrie | 61c | 224.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rublev | 46c | 216.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Norrie | 36c | 191.84$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…212ebacked Rublev | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rublev | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Rublev | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Norrie | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Rublev | 37c | 114.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa905…fcf1backed Rublev | 33c | 106.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Rublev | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rublev | 66c | 102.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Rublev | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Rublev | 18c | 94.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Rublev | 14c | 94.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…59b5backed Rublev | 13c | 92.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Rublev | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Rublev | 32c | 91.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rublev | 35c | 91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…edf9backed Norrie | 67c | 90.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…0039backed Rublev | 66c | 83.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Norrie | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Norrie | 42c | 76.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Rublev | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Norrie | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rublev | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Norrie | 58c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Rublev | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Norrie | 57c | 34.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Rublev | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Norrie | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c63…a2f9backed Rublev | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rublev | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…aff9backed Rublev | 68c | 29.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…c45ebacked Rublev | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Rublev | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.