NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4bbb3b787d42dd2b142a94909537b478968e0e0dfacb025a6350054b46bdf3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 50,000$26,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,999.98 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Magic | 48c | 36,199$17,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,823.53 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c67…377ebacked Magic | 48c | 18,000$8,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,360 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 9,974$5,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,186.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Magic | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.99 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic | 47c | 6,700$3,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,551 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 6,042$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.38 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 6,006$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,093.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 5,999$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.61 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 48c | 5,292$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Magic | 48c | 2,708$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.38 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Magic | 48c | 2,035$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.42 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Magic | 48c | 1,374$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 1,256$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.65 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 1,208$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.91 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 1,129$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Magic | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc5…b639backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6043…84afbacked Magic | 48c | 821.65$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…e65abacked Magic | 50c | 810.03$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 800.99$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.52 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 751$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.52 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 48c | 408.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.55 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Magic | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Magic | 48c | 359$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.68 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Magic | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Magic | 47c | 226.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Magic | 48c | 207.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 173.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Magic | 48c | 167$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 134.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Magic | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 280 | 58.2%163 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Magic | 45c | 56.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…e67abacked Magic | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Magic | 49c | 50.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Trail Blazers | 76c | 50.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Magic | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Magic | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Magic | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Magic | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Magic | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Magic | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Trail Blazers | 69c | 26.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Magic | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Magic | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 24.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…5829backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 19.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…c2c8backed Trail Blazers | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Trail Blazers vs. MagicMagic won
- Trail Blazers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.