Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c4281f8963e325a14e826eea704d5b989bb401df5afc8bc60896037915f049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 30c | 957.92$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.83 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 419.67$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 321$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 257.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 36c | 212.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 191.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 176.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 30c | 173.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 40c | 164$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 148.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 142.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 38c | 139.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 133.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 133$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 63c | 131.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 29c | 115.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 107.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 103.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 54c | 77.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 52c | 74.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +12.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 49c | 69.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 64.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 52c | 58.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 26c | 56.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…d21fbacked No | 61c | 55.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 50c | 47.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 61c | 47.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 42.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…2b17backed No | 78c | 40.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 68c | 39.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 39.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 64c | 37.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 31.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 71c | 30.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 29.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26b…b2adbacked Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 56c | 26.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 45c | 25.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 235 | 59.6%140 W · 95 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 268 | 63.1%169 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…8d69backed No | 69c | 23.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…d49dbacked No | 69c | 23.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 72c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 62c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 18.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…2c47backed No | 65c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 62c | 17.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 16.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 15.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.