Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbcf51dead28400592b247f3e2f3fa4abaadf3ac706ec803351887d18c598971
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 57c | 1,747$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.23 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 41c | 1,365$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.52 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 54c | 960.95$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 33c | 314.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.04 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 269.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.27 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 60c | 261$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.56 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 240.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 44c | 240$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc5…c74abacked No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 209.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 49c | 196$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 44c | 186.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 68c | 183.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 183.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 172$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 168.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 58c | 168$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 940 | 44.8%421 W · 519 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 53c | 151.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 139.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 42c | 133$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 45c | 122.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 109$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 48c | 103.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 101.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 98.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 96.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…5cb9backed No | 57c | 88.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 45c | 86.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 26c | 80.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 53c | 79.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +12.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…e245backed Yes | 74c | 78.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 45c | 72.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 38c | 63.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 47c | 62.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 56.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 56.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 43c | 55.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 67c | 54.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…f17bbacked Yes | 45c | 50.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 197 | 50.8%100 W · 97 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed Yes | 45c | 49.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 47.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 31c | 47.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 44.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 44c | 44.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 44.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 62c | 41.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…2edfbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 40c | 39.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 39.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 47c | 38.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 55c | 37.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 55c | 36.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 45c | 35.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 35.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 66c | 34.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 360 | 32.2%116 W · 244 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 30.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…d4c9backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 235 | 59.6%140 W · 95 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 61c | 27.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…d909backed Yes | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 67cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 62c | 26.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 57c | 24.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1422…92d5backed Yes | 73c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.