Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple dip to $264 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d6b60054faabc35964b6864de2baa1834d797ecb18200a978592708ac9c43d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 76c | 972.09$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.24 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 30c | 574.63$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.64 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 75c | 340$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.05 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 300.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.01 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 64c | 204.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 79c | 202.45$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.73 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…3bf2backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 23c | 166.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.89 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked No | 30c | 99.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 86.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 21c | 64.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 50.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 43c | 32.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 60c | 30.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple dip to $264 in November?this page
- Will Apple dip to $248 in November?No won
- Will Apple reach $272 in November?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $278 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $280 in November?Yes won
- Will Apple reach $288 in November?No won
- Will Apple reach $352 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.