Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf50f721e5ecce0c7060ef2876e47bdfbbffb3bc9822e6c1fcfaa9a72a44b7fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 1,503$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.9 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 605.21$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.67 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 596.29$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 522.54$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 513.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 445.42$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 440$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 46c | 430.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 405.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 355.23$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 37c | 326.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 307.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 303$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 34c | 300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 298.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 293$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 49c | 238.94$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.93 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 40c | 209.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 205.21$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 59c | 199.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.03 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 194$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 60c | 188.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 38c | 186.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 184$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 178.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 69c | 175.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 62c | 161.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 159.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 158.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 155.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 26c | 148.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 66c | 146.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 146.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 145.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 70c | 142.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 132.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 130.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 130.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 50c | 129$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 79c | 126.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 122.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 39c | 117.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 114.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 113.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 37c | 113$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 31c | 111.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 45c | 100.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 65c | 99.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 93.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 36c | 89.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 29c | 89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 69c | 86.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 85.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 38c | 84.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 82.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 53c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 79.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked No | 74c | 79.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked Yes | 21c | 70.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 70.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 67.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 66.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 30c | 65.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 65.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 39c | 61.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 72c | 54.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 54.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 53.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 53.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 37c | 53.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 57c | 53.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed Yes | 79c | 53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 47c | 52.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Yes | 55c | 50.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 50.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 41c | 49.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 39c | 48.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 47.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 27c | 47.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 46.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 55c | 44.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 41c | 41.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.