Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25e228cb196fd15f4c52719c1b3e77c6dd899b696e24e91d2009ceaf1eabaf2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 49c | 983.05$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.88 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 58c | 720.59$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.59 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 626.6$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.37 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 546.4$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.11 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 481.13$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.61 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 467.64$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 375.29$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 366.29$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 346.77$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 52c | 322.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.87 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 305$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 290.14$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 287.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 276.94$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 235.03$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 227.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 54c | 220.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 50c | 205.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 55c | 198.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 25c | 190.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 176.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 167.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 150.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 142.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 138.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 49c | 129$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 30c | 127.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 124.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 116.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 114.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 67c | 109.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 105.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 103.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 103$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 100.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 100.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 48c | 81.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 78.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 53c | 77.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 47c | 75.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 75.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 75.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 74.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 24c | 70.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 51c | 69.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 44c | 68.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 65.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 64.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 26c | 61.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 79c | 61.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Yes | 42c | 59.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 47c | 56.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 55c | 54.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 53.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 53.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 41c | 53.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 51.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 44c | 50.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 49c | 50.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 54c | 44.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…4904backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 54c | 42.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 50c | 40.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 53c | 39.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 46c | 36.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 35.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 78c | 34.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 67c | 32.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 49c | 30.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 48c | 30.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…8493backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 60c | 28.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 28.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 45c | 27.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.