Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf52e2da2a5fb7b350df88990d850993d13625574efe08be851c5ea9639f74f18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 45c | 1,089$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 47c | 800.22$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.03 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 40c | 354.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 344.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 32c | 336.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 39c | 330.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 59c | 311.04$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 67c | 281$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 261.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 256.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 52c | 212.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 192.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 160.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 156.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 144.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 80c | 117.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 42c | 102.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 31c | 84.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 82.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 56c | 73.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 70c | 71.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 70.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 44c | 66.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 43c | 64.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 63.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed No | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 49c | 55.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 39c | 55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 45c | 52.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 32c | 52.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 67c | 50.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 23c | 46.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 46.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 42c | 41.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 46c | 41.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 42c | 40.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 39.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 28c | 39.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6681…77b9backed No | 37c | 36.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…8f04backed Yes | 57c | 34.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 33.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 45c | 31.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 50c | 31.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…1c53backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 72c | 28.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 77c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 62c | 23.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 68c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 48c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.