Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83620a0e826c30bae31c359f067e10ff8b63227fc1edf8771d5d6eabeb15b71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 616.74$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 444.18$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 26c | 378.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 24c | 376.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 294.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 269$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 174.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 172.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 170.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 159.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 154.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 136.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 77c | 130.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 27c | 109.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 104.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 100.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 21c | 94.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 94.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 85.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…5fb4backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 76.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 23c | 74.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 71.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 69.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 65.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 78c | 63.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 63.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 61.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 58.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 25c | 50.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 49.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 46.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 24c | 44.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 30c | 41.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 80c | 40.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 26c | 39.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 71c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 68c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 77c | 13.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.