NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf55214b2abd31ed01c8b0f3da6c67eb83bd26c262d62c5d0379d8a62ecc97b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder | 46c | 12,146$5,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,552.13 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed Spurs | 55c | 9,358$5,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,147.04 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 47c | 2,443$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.42 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 50c | 2,200$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Spurs | 54c | 1,991$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.89 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder | 45c | 1,696$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.65 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Spurs | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.83 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Spurs | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 45c | 955.99$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.79 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Thunder | 46c | 949.45$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.44 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs | 55c | 754$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.32 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked Spurs | 55c | 546.69$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Thunder | 46c | 362.83$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.93 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…b94cbacked Spurs | 70c | 192.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.06 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 44c | 179.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Spurs | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Spurs | 14c | 172.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Spurs | 19c | 108.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Spurs | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thunder | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Spurs | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5e…b6dfbacked Spurs | 17c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Spurs | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 48c | 62.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Spurs | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | -13.3wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Thunder | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Spurs | 58c | 32.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Spurs | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.