TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b15…9b08backed Under53c18,237$9,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,608.4210239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Over50c5,879$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.4856646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Over49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over40c4,333$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.128,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c4,170$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0432,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over49c1,540$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.62,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over48c1,505$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.62,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Over50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75016550.9%84 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Under52c1,381$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.2717540.6%71 W · 104 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under52c1,250$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60040451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Over48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.991,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c612$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.882,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Under52c519.23$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.2326553.2%141 W · 124 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Under51c473$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7720536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under50c333.49$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.753,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over6c231.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.131,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c222.82$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7554351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1537352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1517545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9237959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Over32c76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.328936%32 W · 57 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0832853%174 W · 154 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under52c47.87$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.982,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x125e…583fbacked Under50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217749.4%38 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over48c41.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.011,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022655.3%125 W · 101 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.231947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Over49c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.743145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed Under52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.612062.5%75 W · 45 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.