Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5e9190d032215ae5994b901f09331a65108b0d575a663c90dafac8878ac3b0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 33c | 408.37$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.53 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 35c | 336.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 40c | 281.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 256.68$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 236.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 50c | 206.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 206.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 192$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 184.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 176.73$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 175.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 34c | 163.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 161.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 154.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 144.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 133.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 131$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 115.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 109.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 53c | 102.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 39c | 90.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 34c | 87.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 62c | 78.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 70.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 60.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 51c | 51.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 52c | 48.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 46.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 68c | 46.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 65c | 44.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 34c | 42.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 66c | 42.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 42.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 40.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No | 36c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 39.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 35.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 35.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 31.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 61c | 29.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 42c | 28.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 27.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 59c | 24.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 58c | 24.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 55c | 21.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes | 69c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 67c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 36°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.