MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf655789d74acf2f87efc31c01afda4dc019f4e56715105c253ebca4a0e5f8567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 56c | 69,890$38,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,895.19 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 25,159$11,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,006.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 44c | 18,888$8,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,577.28 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 5,744$2,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,187.51 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 2,572$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 45c | 2,251$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.44 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,929$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 55c | 1,421$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.38 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 1,360$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 45c | 1,333$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 45c | 1,323$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.42 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 43c | 1,262$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.53 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,200$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 1,120$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.89 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 45c | 1,112$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.6 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Under | 45c | 997.68$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.72 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 44c | 795$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 751$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 44c | 560$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.6 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 55c | 499.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 457$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 45c | 444$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 362.72$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 312.25$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 32c | 301$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 48c | 204$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 186.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 45c | 146.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 45c | 112.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 33c | 112$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 44c | 85.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 81.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 45c | 68.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 45c | 58.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 43.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Under | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 45c | 22.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 53c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.