WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6fbd298f684d91ef1d143b2f1f1ad2ca80763518c5b01d09ec7b1dc40a3983b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Mysticsof Washington Mystics, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 279 | 49.1%137 W · 142 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics | 43c | 3,092$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.58 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Washington Mystics | 43c | 1,342$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.89 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Mystics | 70c | 806.61$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.54 | 389 | 40.9%159 W · 230 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382f…c116backed Washington Mystics | 73c | 614.33$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 529.04$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.75 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 30c | 491.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Phoenix Mercury | 32c | 354.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 327.55$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.43 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 33c | 239.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 391 | 50.4%197 W · 194 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 183.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 657 | 51.4%338 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…85b9backed Washington Mystics | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Phoenix Mercury | 32c | 88.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…1773backed Phoenix Mercury | 28c | 52.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Washington Mystics | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)this page
- DeWanna Bonner: Points O/U 10.5No won
- DeWanna Bonner: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Kelsey Plum: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Sonia Citron: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)Washington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Over won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.