TailMyPicks
Market

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Mysticsof Washington Mystics, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,805 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6820…1c19backed Phoenix Mercury51c63,120$31,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,916.713754.1%20 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Mystics49c29,476$14,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,982.4979648.7%388 W · 408 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Mystics50c17,618$8,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,771.521,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ce…9f80backed Washington Mystics50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0001855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfe…9483backed Phoenix Mercury49c7,194$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.162142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics53c6,860$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,255.631,01247.9%485 W · 527 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Washington Mystics50c6,435$3,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,186.8129548.5%143 W · 152 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury49c6,032$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.6827949.1%137 W · 142 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Mystics51c4,778$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.9185948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Phoenix Mercury47c4,593$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.9239450.5%199 W · 195 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Mystics51c4,559$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.9990449.4%447 W · 457 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Phoenix Mercury51c4,466$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.917948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Mystics51c4,362$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.7328753.3%153 W · 134 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Phoenix Mercury49c3,846$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8873542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bcf…c767backed Phoenix Mercury49c3,343$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.229339.8%37 W · 56 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Washington Mystics50c2,757$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.1542046.7%196 W · 224 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Washington Mystics50c2,545$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.8841051.2%210 W · 200 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Phoenix Mercury50c2,512$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.881631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-44.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Mystics50c2,501$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.6347246.8%221 W · 251 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Washington Mystics50c2,250$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.514248.6%69 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Mystics51c1,839$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.6732749.5%162 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Washington Mystics50c1,776$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.916750.7%34 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd679…91a0backed Phoenix Mercury48c1,750$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.11850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Mystics51c1,649$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.0136754%198 W · 169 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Phoenix Mercury48c1,458$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6387…95dcbacked Washington Mystics55c1,429$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.661788.2%15 W · 2 L+5.8wins+0.34per pick54cpaid+63.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Phoenix Mercury45c1,349$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.8631443%135 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Phoenix Mercury49c1,098$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.1212057.5%69 W · 51 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Washington Mystics51c1,048$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.229751.5%50 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Washington Mystics51c941.18$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.183545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Washington Mystics51c765.18$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.4211354%61 W · 52 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Phoenix Mercury12c761.67$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8832849.4%162 W · 166 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Phoenix Mercury24c758.6$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.713956.8%79 W · 60 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Phoenix Mercury49c651.45$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.219157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaad1…172ebacked Phoenix Mercury49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Phoenix Mercury3c446.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.973644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Mystics64c424.23$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.81,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3cb…7e67backed Phoenix Mercury50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury18c396.44$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9639150.4%197 W · 194 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc28d…df7fbacked Phoenix Mercury50c392$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1961145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Phoenix Mercury9c353.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.313348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Washington Mystics49c342.71$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.675843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Washington Mystics51c283.27$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+43%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury49c256$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4493248.8%455 W · 477 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Phoenix Mercury48c253.83$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8430054%162 W · 138 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x999d…a1e1backed Phoenix Mercury50c248.34$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.952556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Phoenix Mercury49c233.06$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8310451.9%54 W · 50 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x085d…c89ebacked Washington Mystics50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf452…4d43backed Phoenix Mercury50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007160.6%43 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Phoenix Mercury27c186$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2224255.4%134 W · 108 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Washington Mystics51c164.9$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.83857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Washington Mystics50c159$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16df…9653backed Phoenix Mercury50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-62.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b84…6e9bbacked Phoenix Mercury48c143.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf969…4fdbbacked Phoenix Mercury50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0378…1755backed Phoenix Mercury50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Phoenix Mercury31c133.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2825447.2%120 W · 134 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Phoenix Mercury46c123.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0624847.6%118 W · 130 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Phoenix Mercury27c122.55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6632148.6%156 W · 165 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Washington Mystics49c122$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfac6…14fdbacked Phoenix Mercury49c116.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0346…bd29backed Washington Mystics56c109.34$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Phoenix Mercury43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4316141%66 W · 95 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Washington Mystics51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Washington Mystics50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e17…589ebacked Washington Mystics51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf343…ac3dbacked Phoenix Mercury50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x199c…2515backed Phoenix Mercury50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8e…6a8bbacked Phoenix Mercury50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x334a…c4cfbacked Phoenix Mercury50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66cf…6eb7backed Phoenix Mercury50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c5…122cbacked Phoenix Mercury50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x840b…345fbacked Washington Mystics52c94.23$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+65.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Phoenix Mercury26c93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8937054.1%200 W · 170 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Mystics47c92$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7618157.5%104 W · 77 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Washington Mystics49c90.2$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5576142.7%325 W · 436 L-19.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Phoenix Mercury29c83.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0131249.4%154 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Washington Mystics51c82.41$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3814350.3%72 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Phoenix Mercury49c80.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.221947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed Washington Mystics57c78.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.952564%16 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Washington Mystics52c72.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7125247.6%120 W · 132 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a06…248abacked Phoenix Mercury49c66.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Washington Mystics53c61.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.022955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Phoenix Mercury49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Washington Mystics51c60.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.847247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Phoenix Mercury50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Phoenix Mercury50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305856.9%33 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a8b…6a9fbacked Phoenix Mercury51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Washington Mystics51c56.95$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0418144.2%80 W · 101 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…bfe8backed Phoenix Mercury49c55.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Washington Mystics57c53.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0465751.4%338 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Washington Mystics51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.535254.3%191 W · 161 L+21.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x641d…eeedbacked Washington Mystics51c41.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Washington Mystics51c37.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5814751%75 W · 72 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Washington Mystics51c35.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.26731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Phoenix Mercury30c34.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2419650.5%99 W · 97 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7938…a655backed Washington Mystics51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Phoenix Mercury50c23.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.991553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Washington Mystics57c21.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1219857.1%113 W · 85 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb5…3444backed Phoenix Mercury49c20.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083650%18 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.