Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Learner Tien vs Daniil Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e88492d161079a5be3cc92947e73698ff4f150d01e29b9a5d0ab8ccdb70908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Medvedev | 28c | 9,459$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.36 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Tien | 60c | 3,514$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.32 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Tien | 39c | 3,307$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.02 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Medvedev | 73c | 3,137$2,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.1 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Medvedev | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Medvedev | 74c | 2,497$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.12 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Medvedev | 8c | 2,327$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Medvedev | 54c | 2,252$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.32 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Tien | 41c | 1,600$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Medvedev | 74c | 1,500$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.13 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…6a8ebacked Medvedev | 76c | 1,349$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.58 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed Medvedev | 74c | 1,015$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Tien | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Tien | 4c | 967$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.66 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Tien | 25c | 950$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.5 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Medvedev | 78c | 641.41$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Tien | 23c | 588.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.42 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Tien | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.56 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Tien | 9c | 532.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.78 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Medvedev | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Medvedev | 75c | 494.46$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.63 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Tien | 6c | 478$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.66 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Tien | 25c | 449.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.49 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Tien | 27c | 434.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.9 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Medvedev | 9c | 427.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Medvedev | 9c | 426$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Tien | 29c | 394.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.83 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Tien | 37c | 363.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.21 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tien | 60c | 360.94$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.31 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…8a5abacked Tien | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…b31dbacked Tien | 51c | 320.2$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Medvedev | 50c | 312.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Medvedev | 46c | 288.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tien | 36c | 279.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.44 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tien | 9c | 227$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.47 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Tien | 30c | 220$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tien | 6c | 219.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.99 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Tien | 40c | 215.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Medvedev | 64c | 208.63$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Medvedev | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Tien | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Medvedev | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…35dcbacked Medvedev | 73c | 162.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Medvedev | 64c | 143.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Tien | 25c | 139.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Tien | 24c | 120$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Medvedev | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Tien | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Medvedev | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Tien | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 276 | 64.1%177 W · 99 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Tien | 28c | 89.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tien | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Tien | 15c | 81.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Medvedev | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tien | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Medvedev | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Medvedev | 72c | 67.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Medvedev | 74c | 51.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked Tien | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tien | 34c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…3eeebacked Tien | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Medvedev | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…7acabacked Medvedev | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medvedev | 72c | 22.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.