TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$318,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$354,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,027 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 781 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0269…cb2dbacked Magic25c19,869$5,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,033.7265642.5%279 W · 377 L-2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e6…cc3abacked Thunder72c17,824$12,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,019.542365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+31.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic6c16,956$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.893,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Magic0c15,930$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.891,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2c…9965backed Magic29c12,594$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e3…b7a4backed Magic30c12,356$3,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,681333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Magic28c10,499$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.8111443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Magic18c9,023$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.3861532.2%198 W · 417 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a4…cfd0backed Thunder71c7,007$4,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Thunder72c6,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.9872241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…6440backed Thunder71c5,834$4,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36fd…ce8bbacked Thunder71c5,827$4,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,690.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick42cpaid+77.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Magic31c5,751$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.1421649.1%106 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbba7…2629backed Magic29c5,726$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,643.142725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed Thunder73c5,479$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.082642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Magic22c5,344$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.4337627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Magic28c5,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9933752.5%177 W · 160 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Magic30c4,935$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.4849849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ca…77eebacked Thunder72c4,608$3,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.87850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Magic27c4,015$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.5472341.2%298 W · 425 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Magic13c3,900$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.0222832%73 W · 155 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f9…9f73backed Thunder73c3,425$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.66650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Magic29c3,292$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.4746928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Magic28c3,286$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.781,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Magic1c3,175$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.354573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa94e…5a27backed Magic28c3,111$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Magic1c3,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.73318.2%6 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick10cpaid-13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16fd…5b47backed Thunder72c3,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8404344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…b998backed Magic28c2,797$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ea…3ab2backed Thunder71c2,563$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.382080%16 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder69c2,435$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.711,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Magic4c2,367$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.391,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Magic30c2,340$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.141,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…ee60backed Thunder72c2,335$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.110054%54 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Magic29c2,322$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.061,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Magic3c2,075$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8213731.4%43 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Thunder71c1,645$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.7419137.7%72 W · 119 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Magic18c1,565$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.7639843.5%173 W · 225 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Magic31c1,560$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.186744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Magic30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9737954.1%205 W · 174 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x483e…2d6bbacked Thunder72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.892365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c46…3e5cbacked Thunder72c1,250$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3502483.3%20 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Magic26c1,187$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.8529043.8%127 W · 163 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf11f…ccbabacked Thunder72c1,181$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.56771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7dc…1ab9backed Thunder72c1,148$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4911…1eaabacked Thunder69c1,117$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.16933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8290…6a65backed Thunder72c1,111$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.114465.9%29 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34da…a7efbacked Magic31c1,111$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.411540%6 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c9e…7928backed Thunder70c1,107$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Magic31c1,029$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbdb4…0081backed Thunder69c1,023$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.137100%7 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+144%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdbb5…b6b6backed Magic31c1,023$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.131216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe06…d5d5backed Thunder70c1,020$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.017143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ce…e250backed Magic32c1,007$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.391233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec74…05f6backed Magic31c1,005$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.551323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-56%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4be3…abcdbacked Thunder69c1,005$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.55771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+65.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d53…0644backed Thunder72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28012154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Magic28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28016242%68 W · 94 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5066…82fdbacked Magic32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f5…1c1abacked Thunder68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+72.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Magic29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfda5…9bdabacked Thunder80c1,000$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2052540%10 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4ae…4876backed Magic31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3103537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Magic24c966.53$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9770951.3%364 W · 345 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec0…a0eabacked Thunder73c913.47$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.472975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51e5…e26cbacked Thunder72c906.64$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.8612651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c9…e725backed Magic11c879.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005028%14 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Thunder69c835.2$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.8263555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcac2…d644backed Thunder72c833.33$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.331361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Magic28c800$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2241,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ed5…a76ebacked Thunder72c785$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21615558.7%91 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Thunder78c771.77$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.811,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…64eebacked Magic23c728.58$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5719350.3%97 W · 96 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe91d…81dfbacked Thunder69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.644573.3%33 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x542e…e88ebacked Magic26c716.27$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0614941.6%62 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Magic23c707.86$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.87536%27 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+40.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd263…e4eebacked Thunder71c705.14$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.144946.9%23 W · 26 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1ae…3327backed Magic5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356942%29 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ce…a6abbacked Thunder71c650$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.58442.9%36 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x479c…bcbcbacked Magic29c649.98$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.497549.3%37 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076e…887ebacked Magic31c609.89$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.07540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83f…0917backed Thunder69c609.89$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.07757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Magic14c608.19$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.191,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11af…24d7backed Thunder70c571.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Magic29c568.97$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8345251.1%231 W · 221 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f5b…864fbacked Thunder71c527.48$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.972055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc203…74f3backed Thunder74c525.03$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8625957.5%149 W · 110 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0a…e4eabacked Thunder72c520.83$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8315763.1%99 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed Magic32c512$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.376167.2%41 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa447…57a2backed Magic29c509.56$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.771258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd926…4755backed Thunder71c509.56$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…49e3backed Magic34c502.33$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.573138.7%12 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Magic28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14029148.8%142 W · 149 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9855…4211backed Thunder69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6aab…9c4cbacked Thunder69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15529661.5%182 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe034…b9f6backed Magic32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Magic31c478.94$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1185347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf51…2037backed Magic27c467.5$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.232536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b09…1df4backed Magic30c461.41$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcc…277dbacked Thunder70c460$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.