Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8e1ed43e097e502e4a91e8d2afe93db0987b65de61b324d633e93a300ab4c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 14,944$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.6 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 2c | 6,346$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,950$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.41 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 5,073$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked Yes | 0c | 4,333$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,028$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 3,870$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 2,821$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 2,543$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,530$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 1c | 2,386$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 5c | 1,959$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,902$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,784$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…1365backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 4c | 1,358$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,329$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…a3f5backed Yes | 2c | 890.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…b49cbacked Yes | 4c | 846.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 4c | 805.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 4c | 790.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 719.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 5c | 653.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…8e70backed Yes | 2c | 637.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 620.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 3c | 588.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 3c | 587.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 10c | 522.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 3c | 445.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 415.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 6c | 406.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d1bfbacked Yes | 3c | 403.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 4c | 375$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…b678backed Yes | 6c | 257.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +558.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 229.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…6dbbbacked Yes | 5c | 198$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.