Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d16672bd534207ba70a953ffec47eedf3a5d3e19e4d8582075f8ac7013da3a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1f9…1783backed No | 0c | 4,541$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 19c | 1,864$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.11 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 31c | 1,288$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.6 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 77c | 1,197$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.73 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 23c | 1,148$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 8c | 1,117$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.21 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 55c | 1,111$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.12 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 15c | 845.34$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.27 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 21c | 824.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.32 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 10c | 816.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.59 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 685.39$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 12c | 670$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 600$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 529.85$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 71c | 518.45$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.87 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 458.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 27c | 414.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.64 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 15c | 400.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.92 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 400$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 397.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 11c | 385.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.03 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 9c | 303$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.73 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 60c | 302.98$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.93 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed Yes | 17c | 257.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 49c | 221.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 16c | 221.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.01 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 59c | 217.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 31c | 216.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.49 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 213.5$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…6eabbacked Yes | 42c | 181$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 61c | 180.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 21c | 180$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 177.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 31c | 167$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 163.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 18c | 163.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed No | 7c | 148$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 18c | 145.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.71 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 32c | 143.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.06 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 26c | 133.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 73c | 128.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 14c | 126.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 65c | 121.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 35c | 119.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 10c | 112.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 108.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…e859backed Yes | 12c | 107.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 28c | 105.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 30c | 104$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 17c | 101.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.11 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 80c | 100.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 78c | 100.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 48c | 100.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…dde1backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 20c | 99.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 15c | 94.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 12c | 90.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 85.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 85.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 29c | 83.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…20a4backed Yes | 29c | 81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 64c | 80.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 19c | 76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 69c | 75.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…579bbacked Yes | 22c | 68.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +358.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…020abacked Yes | 24c | 63.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +325%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 80c | 62.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed No | 35c | 62.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 22c | 58.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 73c | 54.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 28c | 50.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 21c | 49.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 38c | 48.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 56c | 48.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 69c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 36c | 45.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…cd85backed No | 79c | 42.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1002backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 70c | 35.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 78c | 32.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…f743backed Yes | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5033…41dabacked Yes | 37c | 28.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.