Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f590fb7b9d6fd3f4bcfe76a0997bda25bd9553670b5f72a650d68c05eea4cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 8,961$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138c…b84abacked Yes | 0c | 2,502$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 1,197$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 72c | 883.32$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.26 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed Yes | 37c | 821.95$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 39c | 809.45$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.26 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 12c | 806.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 60c | 804.86$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.94 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 73c | 794.86$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 701.06$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 46c | 696.57$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.4 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 54c | 693.15$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.55 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 35c | 678.11$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.29 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 34c | 598.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.25 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 46c | 582.27$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.43 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 2c | 565.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 522.57$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 517.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.37 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 79c | 440.67$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed No | 66c | 431.57$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 430.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.93 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4d…5b7bbacked Yes | 74c | 428.78$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 19c | 413.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 36c | 394.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 64c | 373.2$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 62c | 345.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 7c | 336.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.06 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 319.31$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 29c | 304.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 274.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 245.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 244.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 20c | 243.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.64 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 240.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 72c | 231.35$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 230.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 37c | 209.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 43c | 208.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 68c | 204.11$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 39c | 202.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 36c | 198.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 58c | 197.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 63c | 195.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5b…f3b2backed Yes | 66c | 195.38$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…423dbacked No | 27c | 192.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…40cebacked No | 52c | 191.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 31c | 189.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 37c | 186.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 19c | 154$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 65c | 149.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…dde1backed No | 63c | 145.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 8c | 141.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.47 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 9c | 139.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 138.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 33c | 135.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 30c | 135.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 37c | 133.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 12c | 132.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 43c | 128.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…6eabbacked Yes | 63c | 127.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 36c | 124$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 36c | 120.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 110.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 11c | 107.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 59c | 106.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 36c | 104.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…47b3backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 47c | 99.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 32c | 97.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 39c | 96.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…e859backed Yes | 31c | 94.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 85.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 25c | 84.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 35c | 84.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 36c | 83.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 32c | 82.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5033…41dabacked No | 78c | 80.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 35c | 79.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…d85cbacked Yes | 59c | 77.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 49c | 71.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 67c | 71.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 70.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e22…dca9backed Yes | 34c | 69.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 34c | 68.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 73c | 66.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 74c | 66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 37c | 62.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 34c | 60.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…7a1cbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.