Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe43168acdb5de450c05e03ba52d75dd6b574adff4901f74250ce6ac83da7d805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc220…9c13backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…ec22backed Yes | 0c | 24,629$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,821$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 0c | 7,392$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,215$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 60c | 1,126$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.35 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 37c | 743.56$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.48 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 1c | 724.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed No | 63c | 522.14$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.77 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 57c | 447.08$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.26 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 322$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…756ebacked Yes | 50c | 312.45$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 287.51$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 34c | 282.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 246.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 42c | 241.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 39c | 228.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 221.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 35c | 202.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Yes | 49c | 192.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 183.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 32c | 157.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 152.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 55c | 138.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 135.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 45c | 135.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 29c | 133.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 131.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked No | 64c | 123.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 68c | 121.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 45c | 113.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 34c | 105.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4969…6d77backed Yes | 36c | 100.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 35c | 100.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 36c | 100.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 98.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 46c | 94.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 64c | 94.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x214f…fabcbacked Yes | 41c | 94.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 46c | 92.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 38c | 92.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 46c | 90.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed No | 56c | 88.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664e…3c32backed No | 57c | 83.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 69c | 79.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 72c | 78.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 75.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…a1cfbacked No | 57c | 74.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f5…78a8backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 36c | 70.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed No | 72c | 68.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed Yes | 49c | 67.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 69c | 64.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 76c | 63.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…1ec1backed Yes | 58c | 63.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 61.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…bc42backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed No | 73c | 55.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…975dbacked Yes | 42c | 54.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…ce62backed Yes | 36c | 52.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…f743backed Yes | 40c | 49.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…2174backed No | 77c | 46.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 63c | 45.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 44.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 38c | 42.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 34c | 39.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 37c | 36.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 35.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ad…9a2bbacked Yes | 39c | 35.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…39aabacked Yes | 40c | 35.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked No | 61c | 35.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f4…66b7backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 41c | 32.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4d…8d70backed Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 28.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed No | 72c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 59c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed No | 76c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6621…22ccbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 62c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 22.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 49c | 21.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.