South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf98b3bbd64afc9ffe423dfca846826345ce38f300d90054dc3e3b8e02978b5e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 75c | 16,599$12,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,167.86 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 25c | 8,836$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.01 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 2,162$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.05 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 25c | 1,655$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.85 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 993.64$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…e9c9backed Over | 25c | 840$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 817.9$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.87 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 25c | 785.93$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.48 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Over | 25c | 693.1$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 683.98$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.05 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Over | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1031…2febbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 52c | 373.7$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Over | 25c | 307.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 14c | 260.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Over | 59c | 254.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…83a8backed Under | 80c | 251.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Over | 30c | 160.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 43c | 145.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 34c | 144.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 36c | 122.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 41c | 112.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 67c | 103.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 41c | 99.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 25c | 90.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 15c | 89.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 25c | 88.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 25c | 87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 20c | 76.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…bf2ebacked Over | 27c | 73.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 73c | 71.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…2647backed Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6544…4b74backed Over | 35c | 43.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 50c | 39.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 36c | 35.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 4.5this page
- CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Talleres vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)CA Talleres won
- Spread: CA Talleres (-1.5)CA Rosario Central won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.