TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,298 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9977…3020backed Under56c4,893$2,739 inLost-$2,739.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f1…7da3backed Over15c2,574$386 inWon+$2,188.693100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+230.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c1,252$927 inLost-$927.343,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…9971backed Under38c1,164$442 inLost-$442.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over62c1,128$700 inWon+$428.232,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over41c1,118$464 inWon+$654.5581440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbecf…0f51backed Over50c645.76$320 inWon+$325.763259.4%19 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over37c487.75$182 inWon+$305.9945348.3%219 W · 234 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over33c344.38$115 inWon+$229.7414241.5%59 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under36c275.99$101 inLost-$100.7418732.1%60 W · 127 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under64c269.63$173 inLost-$173.32,16737.6%815 W · 1,352 L+5.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over27c243.42$66 inWon+$177.4627554.9%151 W · 124 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over26c208.99$54 inWon+$154.6578344.8%351 W · 432 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb3…f890backed Under77c103.38$79 inLost-$79.116761.2%41 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over10c100$10 inWon+$89.610627.4%29 W · 77 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under37c100$37 inLost-$371,02247.5%485 W · 537 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under37c100$37 inLost-$371,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Under75c84.05$63 inLost-$63.043164.5%20 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe977…700fbacked Over24c58.62$14 inWon+$44.652138.1%8 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+114.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a16…1cb2backed Over37c50.49$19 inWon+$31.86887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick55cpaid+85.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under74c25.08$19 inLost-$18.6785260.9%519 W · 333 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb9…c170backed Under80c18.77$15 inLost-$15.0211860.2%71 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under76c13.23$10 inLost-$10.0529470.1%206 W · 88 L+21.6wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+9.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.