TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,114 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a2c…3c32backed Over47c2,149$1,000 inLost-$1,0001957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under59c635.81$372 inWon+$263.431,11435.8%399 W · 715 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under52c565.1$294 inWon+$271.2537446.8%175 W · 199 L+27.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under55c516.25$282 inWon+$234.331,03950%520 W · 519 L+26.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under72c139.74$101 inWon+$38.623,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over41c123.81$51 inLost-$51.2481440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under54c100$54 inWon+$467958.2%46 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under53c100$53 inWon+$477266.7%48 W · 24 L+9.3wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under53c100$53 inWon+$4712358.5%72 W · 51 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over19c74.99$14 inLost-$14.2514641.1%60 W · 86 L-14.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x26d4…ff90backed Over42c61.22$26 inLost-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd924…7bc2backed Over43c58.14$25 inLost-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over42c25$11 inLost-$10.527554.9%151 W · 124 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under55c21.16$12 inWon+$9.5277855%428 W · 350 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under54c20$11 inWon+$9.27558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under53c20$11 inWon+$9.47166.2%47 W · 24 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.