Europa Conference League · resolved market
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2178419d116044af5740659a100ca9323c40f73d68e644793e43813dfe1b0643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 4c | 17,738$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.05 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 24c | 13,892$3,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.22 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 8c | 6,011$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.28 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 5,861$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.85 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Over | 77c | 1,894$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.02 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 62c | 1,829$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.78 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 8c | 1,606$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Under | 38c | 1,585$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 79c | 1,460$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 77c | 1,323$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.55 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Under | 8c | 1,256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 10c | 1,126$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 38c | 1,096$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.29 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 2c | 985.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 4c | 681.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…01cdbacked Under | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 4c | 622.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 21%17 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 67c | 400$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…03b9backed Under | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 9c | 347.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Over | 75c | 297.7$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 9c | 263.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 18c | 241.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…d4a0backed Over | 69c | 239.98$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 28c | 221.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0693…9679backed Under | 25c | 198.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 77c | 193.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 10c | 188.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Over | 79c | 142.86$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 134.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 17c | 109.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ff…879cbacked Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 80c | 99.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 25c | 54.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 19c | 53.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…0f51backed Over | 57c | 53.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…0365backed Over | 63c | 50.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Over | 75c | 50.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 77c | 50.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…5795backed Under | 25c | 49.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 25c | 47.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…c45ebacked Over | 73c | 41.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…fcb9backed Over | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…1035backed Over | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Over | 75c | 30.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 72c | 29.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 42 | 78.6%33 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 79c | 23.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 77c | 22.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5this page
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Team to AdvanceSport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Heart of Midlothian FC won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Heart of Midlothian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.