Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80be49485ef310ff442252e9fcda70511b24ffff9f79c4fabf0cd6740ca06a17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heart of Midlothian FCof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Heart of Midlothian FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3ed…9f79backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 60c | 11,756$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,755.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 17c | 3,217$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.69 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 2,489$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.7 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 73c | 2,052$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.8 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 80c | 1,799$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.15 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 1,424$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.56 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 34c | 909.63$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.77 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Heart of Midlothian FC | 64c | 872.22$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 45c | 525.8$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.61 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 42c | 519.31$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.31 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 512$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 486.8$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 465.63$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.75 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 42c | 400$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 383$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.59 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 304$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 304$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.64 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 44c | 275.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 79c | 272.97$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 257$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…ceedbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 45c | 221.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…d8abbacked Heart of Midlothian FC | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 58c | 177.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 59c | 162$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 156$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 57c | 143.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 133$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…63a5backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 56c | 102.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 46c | 100.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 123 | 36.6%45 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 36c | 82.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Heart of Midlothian FC | 57c | 80.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 74.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 71c | 69.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 42c | 63.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 43c | 46.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…1ca6backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 36c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Heart of Midlothian FC | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Heart of Midlothian FC | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 41c | 27.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Heart of Midlothian FC | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Heart of Midlothian FC | 79c | 20.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Heart of Midlothian FC | 80c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +12.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)this page
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Team to AdvanceSport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Heart of Midlothian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.