Europa Conference League · resolved market
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89d8c3308ce7c4964c8ddfa9e35eb4ffdd395cb7e95dd16ac3f89425f7560bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Over | 39c | 5,804$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,514.35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Under | 47c | 3,790$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.51 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 2,756$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,637.5 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 47c | 1,912$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.6 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 1,822$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.42 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed Under | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Over | 27c | 999.95$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 43c | 917.14$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.27 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 58c | 866.6$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.58 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 15c | 756.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…bcacbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 390.75$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.45 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 39c | 363.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Over | 33c | 298.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 46c | 298.07$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 59c | 293.11$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.81 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…d4a0backed Over | 60c | 240$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 55c | 183.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…f3c8backed Over | 41c | 176.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 25c | 172.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 171.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 60c | 153$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Over | 40c | 122.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 14c | 111.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 65c | 108.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 15c | 105.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 15c | 94.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 66c | 92.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 56c | 92.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Under | 50c | 86.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 70c | 71.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 74c | 61.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +19.0wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 56c | 58.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…8b4cbacked Under | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 64c | 44.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 59c | 42.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed Under | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…cd24backed Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 39c | 37.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Over | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 65c | 35.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Over | 54c | 29.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Under | 67c | 27.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4655…0d73backed Over | 63c | 23.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Under | 75c | 18.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 73c | 14.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5this page
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Heart of Midlothian FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 0.5Over won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 4.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 1.5Under won
- Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Team to AdvanceSport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Heart of Midlothian FC won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Heart of Midlothian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.