Europa Conference League · resolved market
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9e6ccfa550f6f9ab1543d42fed2baff3ff4bb76536840383afcabada23f7583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Under | 0c | 15,060$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 1c | 3,396$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 2,168$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.59 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 2,026$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.03 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 1,739$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.13 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 27c | 1,630$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.62 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 34c | 1,297$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 586.89$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.99 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 28c | 533.93$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.43 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 410.46$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.52 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 24c | 399.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.19 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 67c | 373.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 74c | 324.52$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.53 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 75c | 300.77$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.04 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 20cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 34c | 282.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 75c | 256.62$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.46 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 253.39$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.43 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 73c | 240.02$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.73 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 33c | 223.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 40c | 212.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 210.43$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Over | 41c | 150.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Under | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 59c | 122.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 33c | 116.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 67c | 103.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…0319backed Over | 14c | 101.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 73c | 101.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…fc1abacked Over | 34c | 86.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Under | 67c | 82.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Over | 29c | 82.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 21c | 68.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Over | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 33c | 56.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 66c | 51.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 51.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Under | 50c | 44.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Under | 68c | 43.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 40c | 42.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 33c | 42.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 56cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 31c | 39.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…7380backed Under | 70c | 37.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 39c | 36.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 33c | 34.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 73c | 33.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 71c | 33.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 72c | 32.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 66c | 29.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 168 | 56.5%95 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 59c | 26.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Under | 68c | 26.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…2137backed Under | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 40c | 26.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 74c | 19.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 67c | 18.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 67c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 67c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5this page
- AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5Over won
- AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5)AZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.